2024

• How should we analyse survey forecasts of AI timelines?
  
  

2023

• Elevated computing
  
  

2021

• How much of the fall in fertility could be explained by lower mortality?
  
  
• The special case of the normal likelihood function
  
  
• How to circumvent Sci-Hub ISP block
  
  
• Modified respirator to shield myself and others from COVID
  
  

2020

• Efficient validity checking in monadic predicate logic
  
  
• Protecting yourself from Vanguard's poor security practices
  
  
• Eliciting probability distributions from quantiles
  
  
• Debugging surprising behavior in SciPy numerical integration
  
  
• How long does it take to sample from a distribution?
  
  

2019

• Hidden subsidies for cars
  
  
• Why scientific fraud is hard to catch
  
  
• A shift in arguments for AI risk
  
  

2018

• How to use a pebble smartwatch as a pomodoro timer
  
  
• The relative importance of hardware and software progress: evidence from computer chess
  
  
• Should we prioritise cash transfers to the urban poor?
  
  
• Meta-ethical theories
  
  
• Relationships between games and solution concepts
  
  
• Flashcards for Oxford philosophy and economics final exams
  
  
• How I budgeted my time for Oxford final exams
  
  
• Philosophy frivolity
  
  
• Mindful tech: 22 concrete tips
  
  
• Philosophy success story V: Bayesianism
  
  
• Philosophy success story IV: the formalisation of probability
  
  
• Philosophy success story III: possible words semantics
  
  
• What success in philosophy sometimes looks like
  
  
• The successes and failures of conceptual analysis
  
  
• Understanding central bank loss functions
  
  
• The definition of effective altruism
  
  
• The formal structure of ethical theories
  
  
• Ontology and personal identity
  
  
• Bertrand Russells Brief an Gottlob Frege, in dem er die 'Russellsche Antinomie' beschreibt (1902)
  
  
• Taking the voodoo out of multiple regression
  
  
• Diagrams of linear regression
  
  

2017

• The expected value of the long-term future, and existential risk
  
  
• Relationships between the axiomatic systems of modal propositional logic
  
  
• Triplez vos dons à des organismes efficaces grâce aux réductions d'impôt
  
  
• Philosophy success story II: the analysis of computability
  
  
• Philosophy success story I: predicate logic
  
  
• Philosophy success stories
  
  
• Modesty and diversity: a concrete suggestion
  
  
• Why don't we like arguments from authority?
  
  
• Oxford Prioritisation Project Review
  
  
• Extrême pauvreté: les surprenantes lois de puissance du don efficace
  
  
• On the experience of confusion
  
  
• How much donation splitting is there, and should you split?
  
  
• The logical empiricist picture of the world
  
  
• Why ain't causal decision theorists rich? Some speculations
  
  
• QALYs/$ are more intuitive than $/QALYs
  
  
• Self-locating beliefs vs loss of discriminating power
  
  
• Comment un individu peut-il faire une différence? Une mauvaise réponse, et deux bonnes
  
  
• A better formalism for interpreting confidence intervals
  
  
• Consistent Vegetarianism and the Suffering of Wild Animals - Journal of Practical Ethics
  
  

2016

• Qu'est-ce que l'altruisme efficace ?
  
  
• Oxford Uehiro Prize in Practical Ethics, 'How should vegetarians actually live?'
  
  

2015

• A Path Appears Book Review